Brazil_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
09_1_11 0.97 (0.58, 1.92) 0.77 (0.55, 1.1) 0.77 (0.53, 1.13) 1.37 (0.9, 2.07) 0.83 (0.54, 1.29)
09_1_12 0.93 (0.49, 1.52) 0.57 (0.44, 0.75) 1.17 (0.76, 1.76) 1.01 (0.66, 1.57) 0.56 (0.45, 0.69)
09_1_13 1.06 (0.69, 1.61) 1.21 (0.89, 1.6) 1.19 (0.78, 1.74) 1 (0.66, 1.46) 1.06 (0.81, 1.38)
09_1_14 0.92 (0.54, 1.47) 1.2 (0.86, 1.69) 0.93 (0.59, 1.48) 0.52 (0.35, 0.76) 1.5 (1.21, 1.85)
09_1_15 0.66 (0.6, 0.87) 0.65 (0.6, 0.74) 0.85 (0.68, 1.04) 0.76 (0.63, 0.94) 0.73 (0.62, 0.88)
09_1_16 1.12 (0.89, 1.84) 1.24 (0.97, 1.51) 0.99 (0.68, 1.42) 1.54 (1.08, 2.14) 1.09 (0.88, 1.34)
09_1_17 0.41 (0.29, 0.6) 0.55 (0.37, 0.84) 0.39 (0.29, 0.53) 0.59 (0.44, 0.78) 0.42 (0.29, 0.6)
09_2_21 0.71 (0.46, 1.19) 0.8 (0.66, 1.24) 0.61 (0.44, 0.82) 0.75 (0.59, 0.97) 0.75 (0.6, 0.92)
09_2_22 0.63 (0.44, 0.9) 0.68 (0.44, 0.94) 0.6 (0.43, 0.82) 0.69 (0.53, 0.88) 0.57 (0.39, 0.81)
09_2_23 0.57 (0.46, 0.71) 0.65 (0.56, 0.75) 0.55 (0.42, 0.72) 0.61 (0.48, 0.78) 0.56 (0.46, 0.68)
09_2_24 0.66 (0.55, 0.84) 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) 0.56 (0.44, 0.72) 0.69 (0.54, 0.88) 0.65 (0.56, 0.75)
09_2_25 0.65 (0.46, 0.88) 0.76 (0.54, 0.9) 0.53 (0.41, 0.69) 0.63 (0.51, 0.77) 0.63 (0.52, 0.76)
09_2_26 0.66 (0.49, 0.81) 0.66 (0.53, 0.8) 0.48 (0.35, 0.66) 0.65 (0.48, 0.89) 0.64 (0.48, 0.86)
09_2_27 0.51 (0.38, 0.85) 0.73 (0.56, 0.86) 0.48 (0.37, 0.64) 0.71 (0.55, 0.93) 0.67 (0.46, 0.96)
09_2_28 0.82 (0.35, 1.17) 0.64 (0.46, 0.91) 0.39 (0.29, 0.53) 0.87 (0.63, 1.18) 0.66 (0.36, 1.16)
09_2_29 0.56 (0.51, 0.89) 0.56 (0.51, 0.63) 0.66 (0.58, 0.74) 0.83 (0.73, 0.95) 0.79 (0.71, 0.87)
09_3_31 0.56 (0.46, 0.73) 0.55 (0.46, 0.66) 0.66 (0.54, 0.83) 0.84 (0.69, 1.02) 0.67 (0.6, 0.75)
09_3_32 0.46 (0.38, 0.54) 0.46 (0.39, 0.53) 0.48 (0.37, 0.61) 0.69 (0.52, 0.9) 0.43 (0.31, 0.6)
09_3_33 0.75 (0.64, 0.85) 0.75 (0.64, 0.85) 0.52 (0.41, 0.66) 0.62 (0.49, 0.79) 0.62 (0.52, 0.75)
09_3_35 0.95 (0.87, 1.09) 0.94 (0.87, 1.02) 0.98 (0.79, 1.19) 1.02 (0.83, 1.23) 0.99 (0.83, 1.16)
09_4_41 0.95 (0.69, 1.2) 0.82 (0.64, 1.02) 0.94 (0.78, 1.11) 1.05 (0.88, 1.25) 1.08 (0.92, 1.28)
09_4_42 0.74 (0.59, 1.06) 0.68 (0.59, 0.83) 0.92 (0.76, 1.11) 1.17 (0.98, 1.42) 0.63 (0.4, 0.99)
09_4_43 0.88 (0.76, 1.24) 0.83 (0.74, 0.92) 1.02 (0.87, 1.18) 1.13 (0.97, 1.33) 0.9 (0.81, 0.99)
09_5_50 0.76 (0.42, 0.88) 0.77 (0.67, 0.89) 0.7 (0.53, 0.91) 0.98 (0.75, 1.29) 0.48 (0.36, 0.65)
09_5_51 0.73 (0.63, 0.87) 0.72 (0.62, 0.81) 0.77 (0.6, 0.99) 0.98 (0.76, 1.23) 0.79 (0.68, 0.92)
09_5_52 0.58 (0.5, 0.69) 0.58 (0.5, 0.68) 0.76 (0.53, 1.1) 1.03 (0.73, 1.42) 0.86 (0.65, 1.14)
09_5_53 0.47 (0.37, 0.93) 0.44 (0.36, 0.56) 0.75 (0.53, 1.04) 0.86 (0.61, 1.2) 0.83 (0.59, 1.15)
09_1_AA 0.9 (0.76, 1.03) 0.91 (0.82, 1.01) 0.87 (0.72, 1.04) 0.88 (0.76, 1.03) 0.91 (0.79, 1.04)
09_2_AA 0.59 (0.53, 0.81) 0.57 (0.53, 0.63) 0.58 (0.49, 0.68) 0.74 (0.64, 0.86) 0.72 (0.65, 0.82)
09_3_AA 0.76 (0.69, 0.85) 0.76 (0.7, 0.84) 0.75 (0.64, 0.91) 0.86 (0.69, 1.05) 0.86 (0.72, 1.01)
09_4_AA 1.01 (0.7, 1.23) 0.75 (0.66, 0.87) 0.96 (0.83, 1.09) 1.11 (0.97, 1.27) 0.99 (0.9, 1.1)
09_5_AA 0.68 (0.58, 0.81) 0.68 (0.58, 0.78) 0.78 (0.61, 0.98) 1.01 (0.8, 1.29) 0.85 (0.71, 1.03)
09_A_AA 0.75 (0.7, 0.79) 0.75 (0.71, 0.78) 0.74 (0.67, 0.83) 0.87 (0.78, 0.98) 0.84 (0.76, 0.92)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
09_1_11 0.528 0.000 0.472 0.000
09_1_12 0.107 0.000 0.761 0.132
09_1_13 0.000 0.355 0.645 0.000
09_1_14 0.000 0.975 0.025 0.000
09_1_15 0.930 0.070 0.000 0.000
09_1_16 0.045 0.000 0.164 0.791
09_1_17 0.000 0.190 0.000 0.810
09_2_21 0.473 0.527 0.000 0.000
09_2_22 0.413 0.587 0.000 0.000
09_2_23 0.112 0.000 0.000 0.888
09_2_24 0.000 0.000 0.422 0.578
09_2_25 0.420 0.159 0.000 0.421
09_2_26 0.874 0.029 0.097 0.000
09_2_27 0.000 0.740 0.260 0.000
09_2_28 0.000 0.068 0.699 0.233
09_2_29 0.830 0.000 0.170 0.000
09_3_31 0.872 0.127 0.000 0.000
09_3_32 0.968 0.000 0.000 0.032
09_3_33 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
09_3_35 0.899 0.000 0.100 0.000
09_4_41 0.206 0.447 0.347 0.000
09_4_42 0.575 0.398 0.000 0.026
09_4_43 0.418 0.000 0.215 0.367
09_5_50 0.852 0.000 0.000 0.148
09_5_51 0.786 0.000 0.000 0.214
09_5_52 0.989 0.011 0.000 0.000
09_5_53 0.718 0.282 0.000 0.000
09_1_AA 0.450 0.340 0.064 0.146
09_2_AA 0.628 0.000 0.094 0.278
09_3_AA 0.931 0.069 0.000 0.000
09_4_AA 0.165 0.000 0.379 0.456
09_5_AA 0.956 0.044 0.000 0.000
09_A_AA 0.848 0.152 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
09_1_11 cj20_J22 0.9878665 ach_noj 0.9783780 P00_99 0.9410081
09_1_12 cj20_J22 0.4756550 ach_noj 0.2329599 P00_99 0.1643190
09_1_13 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.8008941 K00_99 0.1157500 L00_99 0.1098113
09_1_14 ach_noj 0.9999999 P00_99 0.6663283 P05_07 0.2096853
09_1_15 cj20_J22 0.9999996 E40_46 0.1449266 L00_99 0.0278335
09_1_16 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.3578391 ach_noj 0.2519983 P00_99 0.1919893
09_1_17 P00_99 0.7025852 ach_noj 0.1350067 P05_07 0.0798822
09_2_21 cj20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.6201497 K00_99 0.5937689
09_2_22 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.9144516 P00_99 0.5566961
09_2_23 cj20_J22 0.8970083 P00_99 0.3641989 N00_99 0.1780331
09_2_24 ach_noj 0.5577552 L00_99 0.2027796 cj20_J22 0.1129578
09_2_25 cj20_J22 0.7972152 E00_99 0.4641810 P00_99 0.3807768
09_2_26 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.3474346 P00_99 0.3420796
09_2_27 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.0576135 P00_99 0.0507779 E40_46 0.0412019
09_2_28 cj20_J22 0.7156931 P00_99 0.6422670 ach_noj 0.5945030
09_2_29 P00_99 1.0000000 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.2826813 E00_99 0.1600105
09_3_31 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.6458508 P00_99 0.6338752
09_3_32 cj20_J22 1.0000000 N00_99 0.2241934 P00_99 0.0823736
09_3_33 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9776482 Z00_99 0.1660697
09_3_35 cj20_J22 1.0000000 D50_89 0.9999484 E00_99 0.9685477
09_4_41 cj20_J22 1.0000000 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.7790493 P00_99 0.6467010
09_4_42 cj20_J22 0.9991316 ach_noj 0.9989016 P00_99 0.2226314
09_4_43 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9258697 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.3544313
09_5_50 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9010729 P05_07 0.1875577
09_5_51 cj20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.6588500 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.3328956
09_5_52 cj20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.9573412 pandemic 0.1189729
09_5_53 cj20_J22 1.0000000 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.5954504 A41 0.2126523
09_1_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9993313 L00_99 0.2698449
09_2_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 A41 1.0000000 K00_99 0.1693808
09_3_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.6914329 E40_46 0.6727243
09_4_AA cj20_J22 0.8556848 ach_noj 0.5425306 E40_46 0.3942560
09_5_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.8343077 A41 0.3174291
09_A_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 E40_46 1.0000000 I00_99 0.1178153

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
09_1_11 0.77 (0.55, 1.1) cj20_J22 0.99 0.79 (0.49, 1.11) P00_99 0.94 0.75 (0.47, 1.08) N00_99 0.29 0.81 (0.5, 1.1)
09_1_12 0.57 (0.44, 0.75) cj20_J22 0.48 0.58 (0.44, 0.77) P00_99 0.16 0.56 (0.44, 0.72) pandemic 0.15 0.58 (0.44, 0.74)
09_1_13 1.21 (0.89, 1.6) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.8 1.12 (0.82, 1.45) K00_99 0.12 1.11 (0.81, 1.45) L00_99 0.11 1.11 (0.8, 1.39)
09_1_14 1.2 (0.86, 1.69) P00_99 0.67 1.08 (0.79, 1.45) P05_07 0.21 1.1 (0.8, 1.47) pandemic 0.14 1.09 (0.8, 1.45)
09_1_15 0.65 (0.6, 0.74) cj20_J22 1 0.69 (0.62, 0.77) E40_46 0.14 0.69 (0.62, 0.76) L00_99 0.03 0.69 (0.62, 0.76)
09_1_16 1.24 (0.97, 1.51) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.36 1.2 (0.94, 1.47) P00_99 0.19 1.22 (0.99, 1.48) P05_07 0.1 1.22 (0.99, 1.48)
09_1_17 0.55 (0.37, 0.84) P00_99 0.7 0.75 (0.63, 0.88) P05_07 0.08 0.75 (0.63, 0.88) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.06 0.75 (0.61, 0.88)
09_2_21 0.8 (0.66, 1.24) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.67, 0.95) K00_99 0.59 0.81 (0.68, 0.98) P00_99 0.45 0.81 (0.69, 0.98)
09_2_22 0.68 (0.44, 0.94) cj20_J22 1 0.44 (0.36, 0.68) P05_07 0.91 0.42 (0.36, 0.5) P00_99 0.56 0.43 (0.36, 0.51)
09_2_23 0.65 (0.56, 0.75) cj20_J22 0.9 0.68 (0.57, 0.79) P00_99 0.36 0.67 (0.57, 0.78) N00_99 0.18 0.67 (0.56, 0.77)
09_2_24 0.59 (0.51, 0.71) L00_99 0.2 0.59 (0.5, 0.68) cj20_J22 0.11 0.59 (0.5, 0.68) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.11 0.59 (0.51, 0.68)
09_2_25 0.76 (0.54, 0.9) cj20_J22 0.8 0.8 (0.69, 0.91) E00_99 0.46 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) P00_99 0.38 0.81 (0.71, 0.91)
09_2_26 0.66 (0.53, 0.8) cj20_J22 1 0.91 (0.44, 1.2) P05_07 0.35 0.95 (0.52, 1.23) P00_99 0.34 0.94 (0.47, 1.25)
09_2_27 0.73 (0.56, 0.86) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.06 0.73 (0.6, 0.87) P00_99 0.05 0.73 (0.63, 0.87) E40_46 0.04 0.73 (0.62, 0.86)
09_2_28 0.64 (0.46, 0.91) cj20_J22 0.72 0.61 (0.47, 0.87) P00_99 0.64 0.6 (0.48, 0.77) K00_99 0.23 0.6 (0.48, 0.82)
09_2_29 0.56 (0.51, 0.63) P00_99 1 0.66 (0.57, 0.76) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.28 0.7 (0.61, 0.77) E00_99 0.16 0.71 (0.61, 0.78)
09_3_31 0.55 (0.46, 0.66) cj20_J22 1 0.59 (0.5, 0.72) E00_99 0.65 0.66 (0.52, 0.8) P00_99 0.63 0.6 (0.52, 0.77)
09_3_32 0.46 (0.39, 0.53) cj20_J22 1 0.61 (0.45, 0.85) N00_99 0.22 0.61 (0.45, 0.84) P00_99 0.08 0.76 (0.63, 0.89)
09_3_33 0.75 (0.64, 0.85) cj20_J22 1 0.68 (0.57, 0.81) E00_99 0.98 0.68 (0.53, 0.78) Z00_99 0.17 0.68 (0.6, 0.76)
09_3_35 0.94 (0.87, 1.02) cj20_J22 1 1.03 (0.85, 1.16) D50_89 1 0.86 (0.71, 1.09) E00_99 0.97 0.99 (0.84, 1.16)
09_4_41 0.82 (0.64, 1.02) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.71, 0.91) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.78 0.81 (0.73, 0.95) P00_99 0.65 0.8 (0.72, 0.94)
09_4_42 0.68 (0.59, 0.83) cj20_J22 1 0.77 (0.66, 0.98) P00_99 0.22 0.76 (0.66, 0.9) P05_07 0.11 0.73 (0.65, 0.83)
09_4_43 0.83 (0.74, 0.92) cj20_J22 1 0.89 (0.77, 1.01) E00_99 0.93 0.9 (0.79, 1.01) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.35 0.9 (0.77, 1.02)
09_5_50 0.77 (0.67, 0.89) cj20_J22 1 0.78 (0.66, 0.91) P00_99 0.9 0.9 (0.74, 1.04) P05_07 0.19 0.89 (0.75, 1.04)
09_5_51 0.72 (0.62, 0.81) cj20_J22 1 0.67 (0.56, 0.77) K00_99 0.66 0.65 (0.56, 0.79) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.33 0.65 (0.55, 0.77)
09_5_52 0.58 (0.5, 0.68) cj20_J22 1 0.79 (0.62, 1.01) pandemic 0.12 0.78 (0.59, 0.95) S00_T99 0.08 0.79 (0.61, 0.96)
09_5_53 0.44 (0.36, 0.56) cj20_J22 1 0.59 (0.47, 0.8) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.6 0.61 (0.48, 0.8) A41 0.21 0.61 (0.49, 0.8)
09_1_AA 0.91 (0.82, 1.01) cj20_J22 1 0.85 (0.78, 0.94) P00_99 1 0.85 (0.78, 0.94) L00_99 0.27 0.85 (0.78, 0.93)
09_2_AA 0.57 (0.53, 0.63) A41 1 0.66 (0.57, 0.73) cj20_J22 1 0.72 (0.6, 0.79) K00_99 0.17 0.7 (0.61, 0.78)
09_3_AA 0.76 (0.7, 0.84) cj20_J22 1 0.92 (0.65, 1.07) E00_99 0.69 0.8 (0.63, 0.97) E40_46 0.67 0.85 (0.73, 1.06)
09_4_AA 0.75 (0.66, 0.87) cj20_J22 0.86 0.81 (0.73, 0.89) E40_46 0.39 0.8 (0.72, 0.89) K00_99 0.25 0.82 (0.75, 0.93)
09_5_AA 0.68 (0.58, 0.78) cj20_J22 1 0.73 (0.54, 0.89) K00_99 0.83 0.65 (0.43, 0.89) A41 0.32 0.71 (0.47, 0.92)
09_A_AA 0.75 (0.71, 0.78) E40_46 1 0.86 (0.79, 0.93) cj20_J22 1 0.77 (0.72, 0.88) I00_99 0.12 0.79 (0.67, 0.88)

Plots

09_1_11

09_1_12

09_1_13

09_1_14

09_1_15

09_1_16

09_1_17

09_2_21

09_2_22

09_2_23

09_2_24

09_2_25

09_2_26

09_2_27

09_2_28

09_2_29

09_3_31

09_3_32

09_3_33

09_3_35

09_4_41

09_4_42

09_4_43

09_5_50

09_5_51

09_5_52

09_5_53

09_1_AA

09_2_AA

09_3_AA

09_4_AA

09_5_AA

09_A_AA